Knowing the future means making smarter decisions. And collectively, crowds are remarkably good at predicting the future.
But why use a crowd of humans instead of AI ? Because the combined human intelligence that powers crowd forecasting shines in situations where AI falls short: messy data and new problems.
When relevant data is not structured neatly into a database’s rows and columns, but rather is dispersed among many minds in a rich and qualitative way, purely statistical methods (like AI) fail because they have little to process. Even worse, they may lead us astray because the available databases have become irrelevant.
Crowd forecasting has been used by the US intelligence community to predict geopolitical events and by health monitoring institutions to predict the severity of infectious disease outbreaks.
For the decision maker facing complexity, cognitive diversity is a strategic asset to better understand, predict, decide, and solve pressing issues.
The complex challenges that our democracies are facing require fast and creative thinking. Discover the latest science and methods to tap into stakeholders’ and citizens’ insights and the famed “wisdom of crowds”.
How crowds of public health experts and vetted civilian forecasters helped the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security tackle uncertainty and predict the future.
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